Master Thesis Work: Develop forecasting model of Indian road traffic scenario to predict road user share, injuries and fatalities

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Start Date: VT20 

Indian road transport sector is extensive and is rapidly growing and mode of transportation is changing. Today, public transport accessibility and last mile connectivity are inadequate, and this contributes to a significant increase in number of vehicles for private transportation in India. According to world bank, the transport sector alone will require an investment of nearly $500 billion (3.6 percent of GDP) over the next 10 years. Adding to this poor road safety is a major concern. According to Ministry of Road Transport and Highways 147,913 people lost their lives on Indian roads in 2017 which indicating increase when compared to previous years. The aim of this study is to forecast Indian road traffic scenario in terms of vehicle population, their shares, number of crashes, fatalities and injuries for next 30 years.

Objective: Forecast Indian road traffic scenario in 2030, 2040 and 2050


• Literature review, detailed definition expectations of the study

  •  Understanding of Smeed’s law, Andreassen Law
  •  Understanding of different data sources for Road Traffic fatalities, (MORTH, WHO, GBD)
  • Read paper Ponnaruli V, “Modeling Road traffic injuries & Model scenarios”

• Model Scenarios considering parameters such as

  • Vehicle growth
  •  Improved road infrastructures
  •  Population growth
  • GDP /economy
  • Average age of cars/PTW/trucks in India
  • Consider end of life for vehicles policy in India

• Predict fatalities for India
• Validation of results

  • Use historic data (1980 to 2000), predict current scenario 2000-2020, compare predicted results with actual data
  • Predict for future years from 2020 - 2050
  • Compare with WHO prediction/any other sources
  • Compare with another country (UK-1960 when GDP is similar to that of current India and vehicle ownership) development path of countries? Is it comparable?
  • Possible growth scenario (source for modeling different scenario)

Expected results:
1. Estimated Indian road traffic scenario, number of road traffic related fatalities and serious injuries until 2050

2) UN-WorldPopulationProspects2019-Highlights
3) chapter 4.7 :- Road injury


WHO projection uses smeed’s law to project road injury mortality rates as a function of average vehicles per capita at first rising with increasing VPC and then falling:

Key findings
LIC/MIC :-Road injury death rates tend to rise with economic growth and higher levels of motor vehicle ownership
HIC :- tend to fall with increased economic growth


If you have any questions contact Nils Lübbe 0322-626940or Pradeep Puthan 

Application Dedline: 2019-12-15

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